Growth slows in $58.5bn US branded coffee shop market amid unprecedented cost pressures

Project Café USA 2026, World Coffee Portal’s definitive report on the US branded coffee shop market, reveals the $58.5bn segment grew 4.2% over the last year to exceed 45,200 outlets trading under 588 unique brands. Most coffee chains achieved year-on-year sales growth over the last 12 months, but operators face an increasingly difficult trading environment as economic uncertainty, record green coffee costs and tariff pressures mount

• $58.5bn US branded coffee shop market achieves 6.6% year-on-year sales growth over the last 12 months, despite lower consumer confidence and tariff concerns 
• US branded coffee shop market achieves 4.2% net outlet growth to reach 45,227 stores, down from 5.1% in 2024   
• Total US branded coffee shop market sales forecast to exceed $63bn over the next 12 months and $82bn by 2030 
• US branded coffee shop market is expected to surpass 57,700 outlets by September 2030 

Major operators continue to expand, but overall outlet growth slows 

Eighteen of the largest 20 branded coffee shop operators in the US achieved net outlet growth over the last 12 months, with four – Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros and 7 Brew – adding over 100 sites, respectively.  

The total US branded coffee shop market grew 4.2% to reach 45,277 stores, but outlet growth slowed year-on-year as operators continue to face soaring commodity coffee prices, persistent inflation and the impact of trade tariffs. Notably, market leader Starbucks announced plans to close hundreds of company-owned outlets in September 2025.  

Much of the market’s net outlet growth was led by a buoyant drive-thru coffee segment, led by Dutch Bros with 1,055 stores. Arkansas-based 7 Brew is the fastest-growing drive-thru operator, while Arizona-based Black Rock Coffee Bar is poised for rapid expansion following its $294.1m IPO in September 2025. 

China’s largest coffee chains, Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee, were notable among recent market entrants. Meanwhile, indicating the US specialty coffee market remains resilient, more than 50 formerly independent operators expanded to meet World Coffee Portal’s definition of a branded coffee chain by reaching or exceeding five outlets over the reporting period. 

Price hikes boost sales, but tough economy overshadows industry optimism 

Over half of US industry leaders surveyed by World Coffee Portal reported positive sales over the last 12 months, with almost 30% achieving sales growth above 5% – a marginal year-on-year increase. 

However, sales growth has been bolstered by higher retail pricing, with most operators opting to pass some additional supply chain costs on to consumers. The price of a 16oz filter coffee, latte or cappuccino grew by an average of 3% over the last 12 months, while the cost of a 16oz iced coffee increased nearly 5%. 

With operators grappling with record green coffee costs, a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, and rising inflation, industry optimism has declined year-on-year, with just 30% of industry leaders surveyed reporting positive trading conditions –down 50% from 2024. Just one in five expect trading conditions to improve over the next 12 months – another near 50% decline. 

Over a third of industry leaders surveyed believe coffee shop like-for-like sales growth will track below GDP growth over the next 12 months, compared to just 8% last year. 

Non-dairy continues mainstream ascent as coffee chains cut surcharges 

Most major US coffee chains have removed additional charges for dairy alternatives as the product category becomes increasingly mainstream, consumers opt for healthier options and following pressure from ethical and sustainability campaigners. 

Eighteen out of the largest 20 US branded coffee chains no longer charge extra for dairy alternatives, with market leaders Starbucks, Dunkin’ and Dutch Bros among those to have removed surcharges within the last 12 months. 

However, nearly two-thirds of industry leaders surveyed still believe consumers should expect to pay extra for alternative milk options due to typically higher costs and less frequent demand compared to dairy. More than half of consumers are also willing to pay a surcharge for their preferred non-dairy pairing, with almond milk the most popular choice. 

Resilient US branded coffee shop market set for further growth despite headwinds 

Underlining the strength of out-of-home coffee consumption in the US and the significant growth aspirations of many of its largest coffee chains, World Coffee Portal forecasts strong five-year net sales and outlet growth for the US branded coffee shop market.  

The $58.5bn segment is expected to reach $82.4bn by September 2030 at 7.1% CAGR, while the total market size is forecast to surpass 57,700 over the same period, representing growth of 5% CAGR. 

Commenting on the report findings, Allegra Group Founder and CEO Jeffrey Young said:  

“Despite difficult trading conditions, it is encouraging to see that the formidable US branded coffee shop market continues to record year-on-year sales and outlet growth. It is clear that this is a very resilient sector, with the 6.6% year-on-year sales growth a testament to the hard work of key industry operators. 

“No doubt further growth is ahead for both established chains in the country and new market players, such as Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee. However, operators will need to adjust their portfolios to meet the needs of a changing customer audience and challenging market conditions.”