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Greggs forecasts profit decline as UK heatwave cools sales

Iced beverages up, but hot food sales wilt as consumers forego pasties and sausage rolls during hottest June in the UK since 1884  

A Greggs store at London’s Wembley Park | Photo credit: Greggs

Iced beverages up, but hot food sales wilt as consumers forego pasties and sausage rolls during hottest June in the UK since 1884  

Greggs has warned full-year operating profit could fall below 2024 levels after customers reduced hot food spend during record-high high UK temperatures. 

In a trading update, the UK food-to-go and coffee chain reported 6.9% year-on-year sales growth in the 26 weeks ended 28 June 2025 to reach £1.03bn ($1.42bn), with like-for-like sales across its 2,085 company-operated stores up 2.6%. 

However, Greggs saw like-for-like sales fall during England’s hottest June on record and the UK’s warmest since 1884. The chain, known for its sausage rolls and steak bakes, said demand for iced beverages – available across half of its 2,649 outlets – increased during the month as temperatures regularly exceeded 30°C. However, food sales took a hit as overall footfall fell. 

The announcement comes just six weeks after Greggs credited its expanded hot food range, including chicken burgers, wraps and fish finger sandwiches, as driving sales growth in the four-months to May 2025 as UK consumers sought more substantial and personalised meals.  

Greggs will publish its audited 2025 interim results on 29 July 2025 and is now forecasting that operating profit over the first six months of the year will be lower than the first half of 2024. The group is also expecting full-year operating profit to be ‘modestly below’ 2024 levels. The group’s full-year pre-tax profits rose 8% last year to reach a record £204m ($259m)

The Newcastle-upon-Tyne-based business opened 31 net new stores during the six-month period after prioritising refurbishments over outlet growth. The bulk of Greggs’ 140 planned new stores in 2025 are set to open in the second half of the year. 

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