The UK coffee shop market is changing fast: here’s what you need to know in 2026

Amid growing polarisation between affordable and high-end operators, a new group of on-trend brands is reshaping the market with iced beverages, matcha and higher-end hospitality experiences. Find out how your coffee business can thrive in this new era of blurred market boundaries and a more fragmented customer base

The UK branded coffee shop market has achieved its fifth consecutive year of outlet growth since the pandemic, adding 420 net new outlets over the last 12 months to reach 12,313 outlets. Sales also rose, with the total market now valued at £6.8bn, representing 5.5% growth over the last 12 months.

Boutique bakery-café chain Gail’s, coffee and food-to-go operator Pret A Manger, specialty robusta chain Black Sheep Coffee and Cheshire-based The Coffee House were also among the brands to increase their footprints by double digits.

The UK also has a new overall market leader by outlets for the first time since 2007. Food-focused Greggs now operates 2,737 sites compared to Costa Coffee’s 2,707.

Both chains now command a 22% share of the total market, demonstrating that UK consumers are increasingly diversifying where they purchase coffee out-of-home.

While Greggs reported a healthy annual profit of £70.4m ($95.3) in 2025, a 7.1% decline on the previous year prompted the food-focused chain to warn of a ‘tough’ year ahead. The affordable operator is banking on meal deals and the closure of underperforming stores to shore up its value proposition amid weaker consumer confidence.

It has also become the latest major UK coffee operator to launch matcha, supplied by London-based Perfect Ted.