Sales revenue fell by an estimated 25% across Scandinavia in 2020 largely down to national lockdowns in Denmark and Norway and decreased consumer confidence felt in Sweden | Source: Project Café Scandinavia 2021

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In 2020, Covid-19 disruption across the total Scandinavian coffee shop market saw revenues fall by around one quarter, with the market contracting 2.8% to 1,277 outlets. The Danish market decreased 1% to 388 stores, Norway shrank 3.1% to 375 outlets, with Sweden experiencing the largest contraction of 3.9% to 516 stores. 

Denmark and Norway took broadly similar responses to the pandemic in 2020, opting, like most European countries, to impose national lockdowns and shutter non-essential businesses, including coffee shops. By contrast, Swedish hospitality businesses stayed open until December 2020 with the government aiming to soften the pandemic’s economic impact. 

However, the Swedish market suffered a greater contraction than its neighbours, suggesting consumer confidence weakened in spite of cafés remaining open in the context of the government’s more relaxed approach to Covid-19. 

While 94% of Scandinavian consumers surveyed indicate they typically consume coffee at least once a week, the proportion visiting coffee shops at least once a month has fallen from 77% to 47% year-on-year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Starbucks is the preferred coffee chain among consumers in Denmark and Norway, while Swedish consumers favour domestic brand Espresso House.

A distinct focus on higher quality handmade food and beverages across Scandinavia's three largest chains highlights the region's strong domestic premium coffee offering

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However, Scandanavia’s three largest coffee chains, Espresso House, Joe & The Juice and Wayne’s Coffee, all have a distinctly premium focus, highlighting the regional preference for higher quality, hand-made food and beverages. Serving 100% Arabica coffee, organic products and ethical credentials were cited as the top three factors defining a high-quality coffee shop by Scandinavian consumers surveyed. 

Scandinavian consumers surveyed appear less willing to try coffee delivery than their European counterparts, with just 28% indicating they would regularly use such a service if it were more readily available. This indicates that Scandinavian operators must double down on providing inviting and Covid-19 secure store spaces for customers to enjoy. Sixty-two percent of industry leaders surveyed believe that consumers should feel safe when visiting Scandinavian coffee shops now, while 15% disagree.

World Coffee Portal forecasts the total Scandinavian branded coffee shop market will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, growing at 1.4% CAGR over the next five years to reach 1,369 outlets. Demark is expected to lead the region’s growth with a projected 3.2% CAGR over the next five years, followed by Norway at 1.5% CAGR. The recovery will be slowest in Sweden, which experienced the largest contraction in outlets, and is projected to grow at 0.9% CAGR.
 

Project Café Scandinavia 2021 is World Coffee Portal’s first-ever deep-dive study into Denmark, Norway and Sweden’s contemporary branded coffee shop markets.

The report features market sizing and growth forecast, Covid-19 impact analysis, industry insight, and a consumer study featuring over 3,000 Scandinavian coffee shop visitors.