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Inflation set to hinder out-of-home coffee sales, says ICO

The Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization says consumers are likely to cut back spending on out-of-home coffee purchases and increase at-home consumption in the coming months, with specialty coffee businesses likely to be the most impacted

Brazilian-born Vanusia Nogueira was appointed the ICO’s Executive Director in February 2022 | Photo credit: International Coffee Organization


 

Consumers across the world are expected to increase at-home coffee consumption in the coming months amid rising inflation and reduced disposable income according to the Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO). 
 

Vanusia Nogueira said that overall sales volumes and coffee consumption should remain stable over the next 12 months but warned that sales are likely to fall in cafés and other hospitality venues as consumers seek cheaper coffee as cost pressures increase. 


The ICO warned that specialty coffee producers and roasters could be the most heavily impacted. 


"I don't think there will be an impact in terms of volumes, but in the way coffee is drunk and in the quality, people are going to lower the quality of what they drink and change where they drink it," she said in a Reuters interview. 


Nogueira attributed a fall in global coffee production last year to the effects of climate change, adding that although coffee prices had risen, growers in the largest coffee producing regions have been unable to increase production. 
 

Total production for the 2021/22 coffee year hit 167.2 million 60-kilogram bags, a 2.1% fall from the previous year. 


Nogueira said the ICO is working on creating a resilience fund alongside banks and other organisations to better understand productive zones and climate change-resistant coffee varieties. 


Brazilian-born Vanusia Nogueira was appointed the ICO’s Executive Director in February 2022. She previously held roles at the Brazilian Association of Specialty Coffees (BSCA), the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA), World Coffee Producers Forum (WCPF), Rainforest Alliance and the Alliance for Coffee Excellence (ACE). 


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