| Vietnam

ICO lowers global coffee consumption growth forecast to 1-2% annually

The organisation, whose member governments represent 93% of world coffee production, anticipates a balance in supply and demand within the global coffee market within three years

Nogueira said global supply and demand for coffee, currently in deficit, would balance by 2025.  | Photo credit: Dang Cong


The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has lowered its forecast for global coffee consumption growth to 1-2% a year until 2030.  

Speaking at a Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association event in Hanoi, ICO Executive Director Vanusia Nogueira said inflationary pressures in Europe and the Russia’s war in Ukraine were behind the new ‘conservative’ projection, which has fallen from an ‘overly optimistic’ annual forecast of 3.3% a year ago. 

Speaking to Bloomberg reporters at the event, Nogueira said global supply and demand for coffee, currently in deficit, would reach parity by 2025. 

Global demand for robusta beans will also increase, she added, as arabica coffee farmers seek to grow more resilient coffee varieties. 

While this is unlikely to impact Vietnam’s position as the largest robusta exporter in the world, the ICO Executive Director stressed the need for producers to increase domestic consumption. 

The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association predicts domestic coffee consumption to rise between 5-10% in the next few years. 

Following the the Hanoi conference, the ICO and the ASEAN Coffee Federation (ACF) signed a joint declaration to improve support, dialogue and resource sharing among south east Asia’s coffee industry. The agreement will also help establish a Regional Knowledge Hub to support initiatives and investments on both regional and international levels. 

In June 2022, the ICO introduced a new International Coffee Agreement 2022, bringing together some of the largest global coffee farmers, retailers, roasters and manufacturers. The updated agreement invites dialogue with 75 coffee producing and importing nations, all of which are ICO member governments, representing 93% of world coffee production and 63% of world consumption.   

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